Picture from Getty Images.
We start with a picture of the late Minnesota Senator Eugene McCarthy, who sought the Democratic nomination for President in 1968. He challenged the incumbent President Lyndon B. Johnson, on an anti–Vietnam War platform. Unfortunately, at present there is no American leader in the position of power who is advocating for peace in the Ukraine. While our leaders are cloaking their rhetoric in the cloth of Democracy, we think their overriding concern is defeating the Russians in Ukraine. Consider the following comments made in the last few weeks.
“Providing assistance for Ukrainians to defeat the Russians is the number one priority for the United States right now.” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
“America and our allies have proudly answered your call: imposing devastating sanctions on Putin and ensuring Ukraine has the resources it needs to win this war.” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to President Zelensky of Ukraine.
“The U.S. and its allies will provide support as long as it takes for Ukraine to win its war against Russia. We are going to stick with Ukraine, and all of the alliance is going to stick with Ukraine as long as it takes to in fact make sure that they are not defeated.” President Joe Biden
Is victory even possible in the Ukraine? Even if it is, we think those same leaders should be considering whether or not the cost is actually worth it. In terms of money, the cost is most easily calculable. For instance, within the last year the US has provided $110 billion in financial assistance. That’s a huge amount of money given the huge budget deficit the US is facing this year and given the growing US debt situation. But that’s merely a down payment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky estimated recently that, if the war ended right now, it would cost $750 billion to rebuild the war-tattered country. How much of that will the US be asked to pay?
Then there is the financial drain of caring for the estimated 5.9 million Ukrainian refugees that have fled their country since the beginning of the war (most of whom are women and children). Consider that New York City Mayor Adams recently called for a NY state of emergency, declaring that the more than 17,000 migrants that have arrived in NYC since April were “straining the limits of our ability to provide care. We expect to spend at least $1 billion.” That turns out to be $58,823 per migrant. If multiply that amount by 5.9 million refugees, you get 347 billion! Who is going to pay for that?
Of course, all of that money pales when you consider the deaths involved in this war. Russian military casualties are estimated to be as high as 55,000; while Ukrainian civilian deaths are estimated to be 40,000 in addition to that of 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers. How many more must die?
Could this horrible war been avoided? As we wrote before in a previous article, Fiona Hill, who served as the senior director for Europe and Russia on the US National Security Council in the Barack Obama administration, indicated that in April 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement: Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.”
However, instead of pursuing peace, the Biden Administration, along with many Republicans, have been much more interested in defeating Russia. There definitely has not been a Biden peace plan, nor have there been any Democrats like Eugene McCarthy or Robert F. Kennedy who are willing to buck the President’s push for victory in what is surely a proxy war against Russia.
As a result of this Presidential inaction, a clear division is arising between Europe and the United States over Washington's more hawkish and hardline stance on resisting all negotiations with Russia, but instead which is centered on encouraging Kiev to pursuing 'victory' on the battlefield. French President Macron has urged a different path. He believes that the West must take seriously Russia's security concerns regarding NATO expansion near its border. "One of the essential points we must address — as President Putin has always said — is the fear that NATO comes right up to its doors, and the deployment of weapons that could threaten Russia."
We definitely agree more with President Macron than we do with President Biden. One thing that this dreadful and expensive war has shown is that the Russian military is not a serious threat to Europe, let alone the United States. The United States military budget for 2023 is $858 billion. In comparison, the Russian military budget for 2023 is a puny $84 billion. There is no real reason for us to fear Russia and try to weaken them in a proxy war. We don’t need to inflate our debt, and thereby further burden our country, in an effort to weaken Russia – a Russia whose military and economy is weak enough already.
In our opinion, the US should be trying to engage Russia, and not try to defeat it. As the slogan goes, Give Peace a Chance!
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